BDSL Division 3 Predictions

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BDSL Division 3 Predictions

Post  Raider9726 on Mon Apr 18, 2016 5:24 pm

Surprise! I've kept it secret from everyone that I'd be posting a prediction thread today, so hopefully this is like the time Beyonce released an entire album without telling anyone...except I don't listen to this era's Beyonce, so if the material sucked, don't parallel that to this.

I'll drop the teams in below in reverse order - before I begin, I think it's worth noting a few things:

This season's Third Division is more competitive than last year.  Competitive is the key word.  I think this division lacks the top end depth that was present last year, but the middle of the pack I think is much, much improved.  

If Crimson Fire were still in this division, I think they'd finish in 2nd.  

If FC Yemen II was still in this division, I think they finish mid to low, like 6th-9th.

13. Rust Belt United - Until they prove otherwise, they'll remain in the basement.  I do not think they'll be quite the pushover from last year though that allowed a league worst 49 goals.  They've obtained some of the West Seneca Strikers' players since that club is now defunct, and I think it'll help a bit, but they're still a pretty old group.  They should be able to win a few games this summer and get some draws too.

12. FC Aftershock - I have them above Rust Belt only because they're a younger squad.  In fact, I'm not so sure they beat Rust Belt in a head to head, but I guess we'll wait and see on 5/22.  I just think this team will have the longevity of the entire season to make some adjustments, considering their youth.  I don't know many of the names on this roster, but I'd have to think Dillon Patterson is their go to guy.  He should get some goals, but I'm a bit worried about their Sahlen's indoor form defensively.  Bigger field, different game in a way, so only time will tell.

11. Stone Jug - Stone Jug was a playoff team last year, and rightfully so...they had the talent.  Unfortunately for them, a lot of their talent formed their own team in the division under 'Youngstown Marksmen'.  What's left is an older team, or a slightly richer man's Rust Belt United.

10. Haz Benz - Another team that wouldn't concede much at all last year, but really didn't tally goals either. I think in 2015, that formula worked just fine against the middle tier teams in the division; show up, get your 1-0 or 2-0 win and get out. I think this year if that same formula is applied, they'll get punished with some late draws or losses.

9. Aurora Arsenal II - At the time of this post's release, I haven't heard a single thing about what this team is doing with their roster this year, so I reserve the right to move them up or down a week or so from now!  Assuming though that it does still contain Brian Norman, Eric Roetzer and Jonathan Correa, I think they'll keep this team afloat towards the middle/bottom of the division.

8. FK Bosna - These guys were stingy defensively, which is the good news, but really couldn't bag enough goals to create separation in any game.  I don't expect much to change really.  The Kadric's and Asipi are still the players to watch here, but they'll need more help to make a realistic playoff push.

7. Devils - This team right here is an enigma to me.  They've lost Ryan Mura to Elmwood Saints, which I think is actually an under the radar big loss, assuming he showed up to games last season, but they've added on Marcus Campbell.  Now I don't know if people have been paying attention here but, the Devils might have the best TWO goalies in the division in Campbell and Wieand.  So, I don't think keeper duty will ever be an issue in case there's an injury or a DNP for one reason or another.  But if both show, do they deploy Campbell as a field player?  This team has a sneaky shot at making the playoffs and making a deep run.  I'm just afraid at their potential inconsistent play week to week to be confident of a number any higher.

6. LaSalle City - Which brings me to this team, which is the exact same scenario as Devils, only this team has Top 2 talent in the league.  Ryan Edwards, if he shows, is the best defender in the league.  He could be useful on premier rosters.  Many of these guys are former Niagara FC/Meerkat players, which on an individual level are pretty useful and skilled players.  But they've been part of past teams that haven't faired so well.  Why? Attendance.  I'm nervous that these guys simply won't travel well for the games way out of town.  But they might be an automatic loss for those traveling into Niagara Falls.  Uglinica is a solid keeper for this division as well. If these guys do show up regularly, I think they can push Dutch for the #1 seed.

5. Revolution SC - Not 100% sure why they elected to stay down in Division 3, but if they did, I'd have to think there is good reason for it and therefore must be dropped in the prediction ranks.  I get a sneaking suspicion that they just won't care as much to go for another title run this year as it seems to me like they want to keep the 'fun' of playing in D3 with brothers or sons or whatever the case may be.  Ben Chang was a nice add though to get another scoring option up top.

4. Great White Buffalo - I like what these guys have done in the offseason.  First, I know a few of these guys and at the very least, they're competitors.  They're not going to just fall behind and fold up shop, so I think work rate alone will keep these guys in every game.  But that's undervaluing their talent - they've got some here.  Maybe it took a full year to work, to add pieces that fit while ridding those who really weren't helping all that much, to get it to where it is now in 2016.  Also it's probably worth noting that teams 2 through probably 9 are all pretty evenly matched, but it's a team like this that I can see caring/showing up week to week, which sometimes makes the only difference.

3. Youngstown Marksmen - Really young squad, but those who already have BDSL experience made an impact last year for Stone Jug.  I find it funny that the scheduling gods have these guys playing Stone Jug on Father's Day this year.  Well done, schedule maker.  Anyway, Ben Hastings is yet another very capable goalie out of this division, and I think the simple fact that he's running this unit this summer, a unit that consists many friends and Lew-Port teammates, he'll ensure that he brings bodies each week to games.  I think you'll be seeing a pretty stout defense out of Youngstown, and with the addition of the Wright brothers, they'll get some goals too.

2. Celtic Classic - Why'd these guys drop a division?  I'm puzzled, but what I do know is that they were able to hang with Division 2 last year, albeit they let in a lot of goals.  I think this minor step down will see a more consistent defensive game out of the group.  They've made a really nice add in Steve Barker, who could torch this division given that he's surrounded by many former college players back in their day, who understand the game well enough still, and on this level, should execute rather consistently.  The one major difference to this team than last is the exit of Prisco Houndanon and George Tor, who, if they were part of this team, would make me put Celtic Classic atop the division and both of them could go for 30 goals apiece.  But sadly, that's not the case.

1. Dutch - I'd like someone to explain to me why Dutch is in Division 3 and FC Yemen II is in Division 2.  Go on, I'm here listening.  Dutch has had a longer history in this league, with players who played for EAFC, Rush, Chelsea, RVS United, Depew Village, Polonia, and FC Quake in past seasons, just to name a few.  Now that doesn't necessarily have to mean anything, but looking at the roster...yeah it does.  First of all, many of these guys are in their mid 20's, meaning they'll be around in the summer if they want to.  No U19 tournaments to attend, no college soccer conflicts, etc.  They'll show up Sunday, win, and party.  They've played enough soccer together this winter to gel and at least on the surface, seem to be a pretty close knit group.  If a Constantino-Clark-McCarthy-Pfohl-Waclawski-Podsiadlo-Raczynski combo wasn't enough, they went out and grabbed Mark Tellgren.  Have fun league, Dutch are your 2016 regular season and playoff champs.

Playoff prediction:

6 Devils defeat 3 Youngstown Marksmen
5 LaSalle City defeat 4 Great White Buffalo

5 LaSalle City defeat 2 Celtic Classic (in Extra time)
1 Dutch defeat 6 Devils

1 Dutch defeat 5 LaSalle City, 2-0 at Nichols

Last edited by Raider9726 on Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:20 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: BDSL Division 3 Predictions

Post  Michael Schieber on Fri Apr 29, 2016 12:05 pm

3rd Division Overview:
With 13 teams now in the “lowest” BDSL division its now better then ever before. I think most teams down here recognize it to considering the moves some teams made to strengthen their respective clubs. Similar to last year I think there is a clear and easy favorite for the division title but the overall field is improved.

Aurora Arsenal II
Team Take: Up until yesterday I had them ranked a tad lower but some late roster additions have me feeling better about their fate in D3. They are still sort of middling club where I think playing and having fun is more important then wining consistently. That said they could steal points from anyone of the right day. Same can be said for them dropping points though.
Best Case – Arsenal final tell me to drop the II from their name, as there hasn’t been an Arsenal I in the league for like 3 years now. The name change makes them play more like an Arsenal team and they make the playoffs in 4th place but are bounced in the semis.
Worst Case - They ask me to name them Aurora Arsenal III because they’ll be here for their existence. The commitment drops off steadily and by seasons end they are in 12th.
Actual – Another standard season in the middle for AAII with an 8th place finish
Celtic Classic:
Team Take: Lots of familiar names to me on this team as they curiously decided it was time to join D3. They were a dangerous D2 side and I see no reason to think that they won’t be a good club here. Barker is a great pick up and one of the best players here. They’ll be a playoff time no question. But will they care enough to rejoin D2?
Best Case – Classic goes toe to toe with Dutch FC for the regular season title but ultimately settles for 2nd. They come out rested vs GWB and beat them for a show down in the final vs Dutch but come up short again.
Worst Case - They moved down because they really are starting to show their age. Barker gets hurt and they defense is even leakier then last year. They slide to 9th.
Actual – I like Classic here and have them slotted third. So playoff bound but again I question their commitment for promotion.
Team Take: Hmmmmm………..Not sure what to do with side. It’s a very similar side from last year so I expect the results to be similar I suppose.  I guess though I think others have improved enough while they have stayed status quo so that might hurt them. They are my toughest placement in the division quite honestly.
Best Case – They vault up the table with a solid defensive unit and some better scoring threats. Find themselves comfortably in a playoff spot but are upset in the first round to Youngstowne
Worst Case – I don’t see things getting worse then 10th for them. And I don’t think they care one way or the other.
Actual – Because I really don’t know much about them I actually placed them 11th for now but I could really see them as high as 7th too. 7 through 12 are tight.
Dutch FC:  
Team Take: As Brian points out, they are the paper winners of this division and maybe not even close. Maybe hard down in the placement process but other teams can attest to that and sometimes it ends up not being as bad after all. But really they should at minimum get promotion. I will say I said similar things about another D3 team last year and they didn’t even earn a playoff spot so don’t let this get to your heads Dutch.
Best Case – Undefeated in league they put up an absurd GD number. They also make a deep Tehel Cup run to the Elite 8 before falling to Raiders. Back in league play they sink Lasalle in semis and Youngstowne in the final for the D3 double
Worst Case – Much like that team from last year Dutch FC falls flat vs expectations. Whether its attendance or over confidence they fall to a humiliating 5th place finish and eliminated by Youngstown in round one. As league grows they miss on promotion and have another year in D3.  One and done vs 1888 in Tehel.
Actual – I don’t think they’ll run into the issues that plagued GWB last season. They are both my regular season and playoff D3 champs.
FC Aftershock:
Team Take: The reverb from FC Quake (see what I did there. Still got it) is in an odd position. They have some very good top end talent but the supporting cast has its question marks. Defense is interesting group and they have Legge there to protect them but I’m not sold. And while they get marks for playing at Sahlens together, their form there have left a lot to be desired. I think this might be a testing first year for this team. As brash as their counterparts on Twitter though which will make things fun with them.
Best Case – I under value the depth and the stars shine bright enough to get them into the mid table. They flirt with playoffs but just miss out in 7th. In Tehel they win two games before Roos FC shows them the door.
Worst Case – Things go south quick as the lose points early vs teams they will be fighting for playoffs with. They then are spank late during a brutal July run of games. Tehel cup is also 1 and done.
Actual – I said before 7 to 12 are close here but I see more negatives and unknowns from Aftershock to feel great about a high placement. So I slotted them 10th.
FK Bosnia:
Team Take: This team disappointed me last year. I thought they shoulda made the playoffs but had some silly loses. I’m not sure what team is going to show up week to week here. But it was their first season so I’ll cut them some slack and roll the dice with them again. I like Admir and think he’s a great leader. Fail me this year though FKB and I think you’re a lower tier D3 team at best going forward.
Best Case – Learning from last year’s mistakes FKB refocuses and plays well all year for a solid 3rd place finish. They knock off Classic in Round 1 but fall to Youngstowne in the semis. But they start to realize their potential here and early 2017 favorites.
Worst Case – See last year really but with even more attendance issues and stupid loses. They lose their cool and cards become a problem and by end of the season they are to frustrated to finish forfeiting a game to get them to 11th.
Actual – Like I said I’m riding with them 1 more year before writing them off. A better season for them to 5th but they fall in Round 1 of playoffs.
Great White Buffalo:
Team Take: That team I was taking about before was GWB. Last year both Brian and I handed them the title before a ball was kicked and they promptly decided to take the season off.  Last year was about as bad as it coulda gone. They proved in Tehel Cup they could be a good squad but just failed to do so in league. This season I like the roster moves. I think Mierzwa learned a lot as a manager last year and corrected some things make up wise. Still the potential to be one of the better teams well learn much after their week one tilt vs Dutch FC.
Best Case – Exorcising the demons of last year GWB rumbles forth to battling with Dutch for the division lead but settles for second. They continue their Tehel Cup magic upsetting West Side and Pendleton before losing to another Premier side in Roos FC. But the make up for it in the D3 playoffs by earning promotion after beating Lasalle in semis and beat Youngstown in the final for the crown.
Worst Case – Last year was the standard for this team. They play well again in Tehel but essentially draw their way out of the playoff race and into 8th. Scoring is the problem all season much like last year.
Actual – I’m splitting the difference here. One and done in the Tehel Cup but they make the playoffs in 6th and then upset Classic in Round 1 before falling to Dutch FC in the semis. Closer to D2 but not quiet there.
Haz Benz:
Team Take: A sort of revitalization is taking place here as Schaflucas and Rowe look to inject some fresh blood into the Haz Benz line up. A few more 90’s and 80’s in the line up should spark some competitive juices of the older members and keep Haz Benz as a solid side. They don’t have a high ceiling but the bottom isn’t dropping out on them either. I think if asked I’d say they are the model D3 team.
Best Case – Like I said best and worst case are pretty similar I think because they are who they are so best case they finish up in 8th with a Tehel Cup win.
Worst Case - On the flip side worst case is maybe 10th place with a Tehel Cup loss.
Actual – So naturally I have them in 8th place in the division come year end.
Team Take: Didn’t know too much about the roster but once released it became clear they have some talent. They join the growing number of Northtown clubs that seem to be solid all around but without a game changer if you will. Still I think they have enough quality to make the playoffs. I think their first two opponents will give us a perfect barometer on what to expect from the season. I think Youngstown could make a fantastic rivalry here.
Best Case – They battle for a first round bye and eventually beat out both Youngstowne and Classic for it. Also give Alliance a run for their money in Tehel Cup before falling. Playoffs see them beat Youngstown in the semis before falling to Dutch in the championship but promotion earned.
Worst Case – The leadership group here has them a bit of a rambling group. Results are all over the place, as they can’t settle into a rhythm. An up and down year sees them into a disappointing 8th
Actual – I think them in 4th so playoff bound where they’ll eventually fall to Youngstowne. Again I love the idea of these two as rivals.
Revolution SC:
Team Take: Well honestly I was a bit surprised they opted out of the promotion. Do I think they would be a top D2 team? No. But I wouldn’t pick them to be relegated either. They would be mid to low level but a solid team. Here in D3 I expect them to be as good as last year unless they know better then me. I think it will be interesting to see where they end up.
Best Case – They are a top D3 team and fight with Classic for 2nd place.  They settle into the 3rd slot though but are upset by GWB in round 1. But they are fine with that, as they want to stay in D3. They shock Meerkats in Round 1 of Tehel Cup.
Worst Case - They are right about there team as they slide down the table to a 9th place finish as age begins to catch up to them.
Actual – They wear those slick yellow unis all season much to the delight of fans everywhere. I have them in 7th right now mainly due to their own seeming lack of confidence in their ability to stay relevant.
Rust Belt United:
Team Take: Ahhhh yes, good old RBU. Love this time as they continue to return year in and out despite the seemingly ever growing odds stacked against them. I refuse to say a bad thing about them because of this. I’ll always be a RBU fan until they fold.
Best Case – They get more then 2 wins.
Worst Case - They fold.
Actual – Come on. Even though I’m pulling for them don’t mean I don’t know what’s coming. 13th
Stone Jug:
Team Take: Now here is a team that faced a split off after seemingly some sharp 2015 recruiting. I think they maybe didn’t expect that and now get to face the defectors in D3 too. Should make for an interesting match up. So with that said I’m not too high on the Jug this season. Just a lot to come back from after the split. But again another storied D3 squad so I’ll be pulling for them.
Best Case – They topple Youngstowne in league and battle their way up the table stealing a playoff spot. There they again draw up vs Youngstowne and end their promotion hopes in Round 1. They then bow out in semis vs Dutch FC.
Worst Case – They really lost more then even I’m expecting and tumble down the table to a 12th place finish. Youngstowne meanwhile sails to D2 after beating Jug
Actual – Right now they have a lot to prove here. Again 7 to 12 are so tight but I have them 12th.
Youngstown Marksmen:
Team Take: Now here we are with the Youngstowne, whom I think saw the success they had with Stone Jug and were eager to build and push on from that. I like the roster overall. I think they’ll be a defense first side with spread out scoring options.  That’s a good recipe for success in D3 though and I have them as a playoff team for sure.
Best Case – Their ambitious are fruitful, as they never really fall below 4th place. They beat Lasalle and Stone jug but aren’t quite up to snuff vs Dutch FC. Still they earn 2nd place and make it to the finals in the playoffs with promotion to D2. In Tehel they make through the play game and to round 2 vs Roos FC.
Worst Case - They overextended themselves and can’t quiet find the right formula to make it work. They bounce around mid table before just missing out in 7th. FC Aftershock knocks them right out of Tehel Cup.
Actual – I like them. Have them 2nd and earning promotion but dropping to Dutch FC in the final.
Third Division Table:
1)   Dutch FC
2)   Youngstowne
3)   Celtic Classic
4)   Lasalle FC
5)   FK Bosna
6)   Great White Buffalo
7)   Revolution SC
8)  Aurora Arsenal II
9)   Haz Benz
10) FC Aftershock
11) Devils
12) Stone Jug
13) Rust Belt United
6) Great White Buffalo over 3) Celtic Classic
4) Lasalle FC over 5) FK Bosna
1) Dutch FC over Great White Buffalo
2) Youngstowne over 4) Lasalle FC

1) Dutch FC over 2) Youngstown

"Mass genocide is the most exhausting activity one can engage in, outside of soccer." -- Dogma
Michael Schieber

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